Publications in Refereed Journals
Age and Hiring for High School Graduate Hispanics in the United States
With Joanna Lahey
Journal of Population Economics (2024)
With Joanna Lahey
Journal of Population Economics (2024)
We explore the labor market for Hispanic high school graduates in the United States by age using information from the U.S. Census, American Community Survey, and three laboratory experiments. We find, in general, that the differences in outcomes for these two groups do not change across the lifecycle. Moving to a laboratory setting, we provided participants with randomized resumes for a clerical position that are on average equivalent except for name and age (as indicated by date of high school graduation). In all three experiments, hypothetical applicants with Hispanic and non-Hispanic names were generally treated the same across the lifecycle by a student population, a population of human resources managers, and a more general population from mTurk. These results stand in contrast to earlier results that find strong differences by age in how Black and White resumes are treated.
| Working Paper Version |
Stuck in Traffic: Measuring Congestion Externalities with Negative Supply Shocks
Regional Science and Urban Economics (2024)
Regional Science and Urban Economics (2024)
Congestion is one of the most challenging issues of urban agglomeration. Congestion costs are higher than socially optimal levels, and more information is needed about the key parameters required to design optimal policies. This paper exploits an exogenous reduction in for-hire vehicle supply in New York City to estimate their effect on travel speed and document substitution patterns to other transportation modes. A 9.1 percent decrease in taxis is associated with increased travel speed by 0.45 minutes per mile, a 7.2 percent increase. Consumer surplus gains from increased speed fade as waiting times increase and people switch to other transportation modes.
| Working Paper Version |
The Political Divide: The Case of Expectations and Preferences
With Trent McNamara
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (2024)
With Trent McNamara
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (2024)
The divergence of attitudes towards their ideological extremes has become an identifying feature in the United States. Little is known about its source, how large it is, whether information can attenuate it, and its causal impact on civic behavior. We design a survey experiment that identifies differences in beliefs rather than preferences as a source of division. We randomly introduce factual information about government spending and show that it corrects beliefs. We further use this variation and estimate effects on a suite of outcomes. For individuals who learn the government spends worse than they would prefer, they become 0.35 s.d. less supportive towards the government, believe the government is less efficient by 0.42 s.d., and are less willing to compromise and trust by 0.43 s.d. We do not find any changes for those who learn the government spends more in line with their preferences. This asymmetric response is consistent with a literature showing that negative information has a greater impact on attitudes and beliefs than positive information.
| Working Paper Version |
The Long-term Effect of Resource Booms on Human Capital
Labour Economics (2022)
Labour Economics (2022)
Resource booms may reduce human capital accumulation. They can increase the opportunity costs of education by favoring low-skilled jobs, thus making it optimal for individuals to interrupt their education. This study uses proprietary individual-level data to study the long-term effects of an oil boom on human capital in a developing country. Exploiting variation in the timing of the shock and geographic differences in the effect of exposure to the boom, I find that exposure to the boom decreased college completion, increased low-skill employment, and had limited long-term effects on wealth accumulation.
This paper previously circulated under the title "A Blessing or a Curse? The Long-Term Effect of Resource Booms on Human Capital".
This paper previously circulated under the title "A Blessing or a Curse? The Long-Term Effect of Resource Booms on Human Capital".
| Working Paper Version |
The Economic Effects of Facebook
With Mofioluwasademi Odunowo, Trent MacNamara, Xiongfei Guo, and Ragan Petrie
Experimental Economics (2019)
With Mofioluwasademi Odunowo, Trent MacNamara, Xiongfei Guo, and Ragan Petrie
Experimental Economics (2019)
Social media permeates many aspects of our lives, including how we connect with others, where we get our news and how we spend our time. Yet, we know little about the economic effects for users. In 2017, we ran a large field experiment with over 1,765 individuals to document the value of Facebook to users and its causal effect on news, well-being and daily activities. Participants reveal how much they value one week of Facebook usage and are then randomly assigned to a validated Facebook restriction or normal use. One week of Facebook is worth $67. Those who are off Facebook for one week reduce news consumption, are less likely to recognize politically-skewed news stories, report being less depressed and engage in healthier activities. These results are strongest for men. Our results further suggest that, after the restriction, Facebook's value increases, consistent with information loss or that using Facebook may be addictive.
| Working Paper Version |
Working papers
Signaling on the Labor Market: Evidence from College Scorecards (Under Review)
With Melissa Miranda - student
With Melissa Miranda - student
Theory suggests that one of the reasons why individuals choose to attend a particular college is to signal their productivity to the labor market. Testing this prediction is challenging because it requires variation in the signal while keeping human capital constant. We study this proposition by exploiting an exogenous information change in the signal of graduating from a particular college. We analyze the effect of an unexpected change in a governmental college scorecard in Ecuador. Due to an unanticipated change in the ranking methodology, seven of the 11 highest-ranked universities fell to a lower ranking. If the signal of graduating from a particular university matters in the labor market, the ranking change should affect employment and wages. With access to proprietary data on 373,297 individuals, we implement a difference-in-differences design, comparing individuals whose universities maintained the highest ranking in 2013 to individuals whose universities’ ranking lowered in 2013. We show results consistent with signaling effects in an employer learning model. The ranking change decreased the probability of salaried employment and monthly wages for individuals who recently entered the labor market and whose universities decreased in ranking. This effect fades over time as individuals find other channels to reveal their productivity. In contrast, more experienced individuals were not affected by the ranking change, consistent with employers knowing their productivity. Finally, we show that the effect is driven by those employers more likely to rely on signaling to infer a potential worker’s productivity.
| JMP Signaling on the labor market |
Vaccines at Work (R&R Management Science)
With Manuel Hoffmann and Adrian Chadi
With Manuel Hoffmann and Adrian Chadi
Health campaigns in firms could be a cost-effective approach to reduce sickness absence and to mitigate negative economic consequences of ill-health among employees. Low participation rates, however, may prevent firms from realizing such private economic benefits. Moreover, employees may overestimate the effects of the campaign and engage in risky behaviors that could be detrimental to their health, thereby reducing the potential benefits of the intervention. We ran a natural field experiment with a bank in Ecuador, where we employed a randomized encouragement design by experimentally manipulating incentives to participate in a campaign to get vaccinated against influenza. This allows us to study the determinants of on-site vaccination and the consequences of increased participation in a firm campaign for employees, thereby informing about the private incentives for firms to run such interventions. Using rich administrative records merged with employee survey data, we find strong evidence that opportunity costs to participate in the campaign and peer behavior in the firm matter to increase vaccination take-up. Contrary to the firm’s expectation, increased participation in the campaign did not imply reduced sickness absence during the flu season. As we observe no relevant health benefits or externalities via co-worker vaccination, our comprehensive analyses indicate that the campaign most likely was not economically beneficial for the firm. Finally, we find evidence consistent with the notion that a vaccination campaign can influence the behavior of employees concerning their health, which could limit the economic promise of such interventions.
| Working Paper |
The Impact of Government Transparency on Tax-Paying Beliefs and Tax Reporting: Evidence from an Artefactual and Natural Experiment (Under Review JEBO)
With Trent McNamara
With Trent McNamara
Effective tax policy requires understanding behavioral decision-making. We investigate reciprocity and whether misperceptions about how the government allocates funds impacts taxpaying behaviors. In a combined survey and natural experiment with 2,000 self-employed workers, preferences and beliefs on government spending are elicited. In the case when revealing the actual distribution improves beliefs, government support increases (0.30 s.d.), views on taxes improve (0.24 s.d.), and affective polarization decreases (0.40 s.d.). However, there is no effect on reported income tax. When beliefs are worsened, there is no significant response on stated outcomes, but we find an increase in reported income tax.
| Working Paper |
| Grant application with pre-analysis plan |
Effects of Political Leaders' Speech on Violence Against Women
With Mikaella Herrera - student
With Mikaella Herrera - student
Political leaders are high-profile individuals who influence large groups of sympathizers. This paper studies the unintended effects of a political leader's speech on violence. Specifically, it examines the effects of the derogatory treatment of women by former Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa during his TV and radio program, Enlace Ciudadano. We have access to administrative data from Ecuador's 911 Integrated Security Service to estimate the impact of Enlace Ciudadano when hosted by President Correa on reported violence against women. We found a 2.6 to 5 percent increase in such crimes on Saturdays when Correa hosted the show. These estimates are robust to different specifications and two falsification tests. We provide additional evidence suggesting that the President's derogatory speech may have increased cultural acceptance of violence against women and shifted social norms regarding violence against women. The program increases the salience of new norms that validate violence against women, ultimately resulting in increased violence. These results underscore the challenges policymakers face in countering the lasting impact of such rhetoric on societal attitudes and the potential harm to vulnerable groups.
| Working Paper |
WORK IN PROGRESS
Effect of conditional cash transfers of labor supply decisions and intrahousehold substitution patterns
With Daniela Santillan - student
Stage: Preparing working paper
We study the effects of Ecuador’s conditional cash transfer programs on labor supply decisions. Two features make Ecuador’s setting well-suited to study this question. First, we have access to the universe of Ecuador’s cash transfer beneficiaries. Second, Ecuador uses a poverty index to define the cash transfer beneficiaries, and this index is reset every four years. The data includes the 2018 poverty index, cash transfer assignment in 2018, and cash transfer assignment in 2014. We used the 2018 index to check for manipulations using the 2014 cash transfer assignment and found no evidence of manipulation. Our findings show a reduction in labor supply among working-age adults in households with children and elderly adults living alone, while child labor remained unaffected. These results stand in contrast with the experimental evaluation of cash transfer programs. Our findings suggest that experimental results do not hold when these interventions expand to the entire population, suggesting the presence of experimenter demand effects in the experimental evaluations.
With Daniela Santillan - student
Stage: Preparing working paper
We study the effects of Ecuador’s conditional cash transfer programs on labor supply decisions. Two features make Ecuador’s setting well-suited to study this question. First, we have access to the universe of Ecuador’s cash transfer beneficiaries. Second, Ecuador uses a poverty index to define the cash transfer beneficiaries, and this index is reset every four years. The data includes the 2018 poverty index, cash transfer assignment in 2018, and cash transfer assignment in 2014. We used the 2018 index to check for manipulations using the 2014 cash transfer assignment and found no evidence of manipulation. Our findings show a reduction in labor supply among working-age adults in households with children and elderly adults living alone, while child labor remained unaffected. These results stand in contrast with the experimental evaluation of cash transfer programs. Our findings suggest that experimental results do not hold when these interventions expand to the entire population, suggesting the presence of experimenter demand effects in the experimental evaluations.
Measurement-induced Biases in Instrumental Variable Applications: The Case of Return to Education Estimates
Stage: Finishing estimations
Economic theory postulates that increasing human capital accumulation should result in higher income. Several empirical papers support this result, many of which employ an instrumental variables strategy (IV). However, this paper demonstrates that if the observed measure of treatment is more discrete than the actual variable that affects the outcome, then IV methods will overestimate the effect. This bias affects estimates of education returns because years of education are a discrete measure of the human capital accumulation process through schooling. This paper shows how to use nonparametric bounds to assess the magnitude of this bias. I replicated four papers that estimate the returns to education using years of education and IV methods. I find that the IV estimates of the returns to education exceed the upper bounds, indicating that IV yields an overestimate of the returns. This measurement-induced bias is present in any application where the observed measure is more discrete than the actual treatment that affects the outcome.
Stage: Finishing estimations
Economic theory postulates that increasing human capital accumulation should result in higher income. Several empirical papers support this result, many of which employ an instrumental variables strategy (IV). However, this paper demonstrates that if the observed measure of treatment is more discrete than the actual variable that affects the outcome, then IV methods will overestimate the effect. This bias affects estimates of education returns because years of education are a discrete measure of the human capital accumulation process through schooling. This paper shows how to use nonparametric bounds to assess the magnitude of this bias. I replicated four papers that estimate the returns to education using years of education and IV methods. I find that the IV estimates of the returns to education exceed the upper bounds, indicating that IV yields an overestimate of the returns. This measurement-induced bias is present in any application where the observed measure is more discrete than the actual treatment that affects the outcome.
Measuring Welfare in the Presence of Repugnance: A Field Study in the Firearms Market
With Marco Castillo, Trent McNamara, and Ragan Petrie
Stage: Design complete, securing funding. Submitted to NSF
Conventional consumer surplus measures overlook the ethical disutility experienced by individuals who find certain goods repugnant. Our research aims to provide a more comprehensive measure of societal welfare by integrating other-regarding preferences into welfare calculations. By considering the repugnance some individuals feel towards certain goods, we seek to estimate a more accurate societal welfare measure, especially in markets viewed by a non-negligible share of the population as repugnant. We plan to conduct a field experiment focusing on the firearms market, known for its varying views on repugnance, to gather incentive-compatible measures of individuals' willingness to pay for the market's existence. These measures will help quantify the bias in conventional welfare estimates when other-regarding preferences are not considered.
With Marco Castillo, Trent McNamara, and Ragan Petrie
Stage: Design complete, securing funding. Submitted to NSF
Conventional consumer surplus measures overlook the ethical disutility experienced by individuals who find certain goods repugnant. Our research aims to provide a more comprehensive measure of societal welfare by integrating other-regarding preferences into welfare calculations. By considering the repugnance some individuals feel towards certain goods, we seek to estimate a more accurate societal welfare measure, especially in markets viewed by a non-negligible share of the population as repugnant. We plan to conduct a field experiment focusing on the firearms market, known for its varying views on repugnance, to gather incentive-compatible measures of individuals' willingness to pay for the market's existence. These measures will help quantify the bias in conventional welfare estimates when other-regarding preferences are not considered.
The effects of expanding microcredit loan limits on credit market equilibrium
With Milena Arguello - student
With Milena Arguello - student
Cash Transfers and Health: Measuring the Effects of Cash Transfers Programs on Preventable Diseases
With Gabriel Urbina - student
With Gabriel Urbina - student
Tropical Diseases and the Timing of Pregnancies
With Manuel Hoffmann and Fabian Villarreal - student
With Manuel Hoffmann and Fabian Villarreal - student
Multidisciplinary projects
Traffic noise and property values: an instrumental variable strategy
for hedonic valuation
With Luis Bravo-Moncayo, Virginia Puyana-Romero, Michelle Romero, José Lucio-Naranjo and Enrique Suárez
Journal of Environmental Planning and Management
for hedonic valuation
With Luis Bravo-Moncayo, Virginia Puyana-Romero, Michelle Romero, José Lucio-Naranjo and Enrique Suárez
Journal of Environmental Planning and Management
Neural based contingent valuation of road traffic noise
With Luis Bravo-Moncayo, Ignacio Pavón-García, and José Lucio-Naranjo
Transportation Research Part D 50 (2017) 26–39
With Luis Bravo-Moncayo, Ignacio Pavón-García, and José Lucio-Naranjo
Transportation Research Part D 50 (2017) 26–39
Contingent valuation of road traffic noise: A case study in the urban area of Quito, Ecuador
With Luis Bravo-Moncayo, Ignacio Pavón-García, and José Lucio-Naranjo
Case Studies on Transport Policy 5 (2017) 722–730
With Luis Bravo-Moncayo, Ignacio Pavón-García, and José Lucio-Naranjo
Case Studies on Transport Policy 5 (2017) 722–730
Permanent Working Papers
An Empirical Study of the Credit Market with Unobserved Consumer Types
With Li Gan
NBER Working Paper No. 13873 Issued in March 2008
This paper proposes an econometric model to identify unobserved consumer types in the credit market. Consumers choose different amounts of loan because of differences in their time or risk preferences (types). Thus, the unconditional probability of default is modeled using a mixture density combining a type-conditioning default variable with a type-determining random variable. The model is estimated using individual-level consumer credit card information. The parameter estimates and statistical tests support this kind of specification. Furthermore, the model produces better out-of-sample predictions on the probability of default than traditional models; hence, it provides evidence of the existence of types in the consumer credit market.
With Li Gan
NBER Working Paper No. 13873 Issued in March 2008
This paper proposes an econometric model to identify unobserved consumer types in the credit market. Consumers choose different amounts of loan because of differences in their time or risk preferences (types). Thus, the unconditional probability of default is modeled using a mixture density combining a type-conditioning default variable with a type-determining random variable. The model is estimated using individual-level consumer credit card information. The parameter estimates and statistical tests support this kind of specification. Furthermore, the model produces better out-of-sample predictions on the probability of default than traditional models; hence, it provides evidence of the existence of types in the consumer credit market.